Thoughts on Tesla from a very distant observer sitting in the land of skeptics and the most challenged by Musk’s Tesla ambitions — Germany!
Investing in a Vision or Invest-a-Vision is what Elon Musk and his aspirations for Tesla are all about. Wall Street likes to analyze what the numbers say (see this link WSJ Heard on the Street), Musk and his colleagues get excited and invest in how they think the future should evolve. It is not only Wall St. that has conflicts with visionaries like Musk, but also much of Europe. People here do not know the 60s cartoon series called “The Jetsons.” (Excellent link about the Jetsons) The series was all about a family of the future with a Robot Maid called Rosie, flying automobiles or drones for transport, tubal transport (hyperloop?), video telephoning and push button ovens offering complete menus. Apparently, the Jetsons was inspiring for many of the ventures out of Silicon Valley and ideas and services we now take for granted. Maybe making visions happen is what makes America special (https://www.invest-a-vision.com/wp/invest-a-vision-gets-started/)
It is probably true that Musk underestimated the requirements for mass auto production, but I suspect he still has in mind the exponential effect on demand when the costs of not only batteries, but also production exponentially decline, esp. when his ecosystem is complete. Tesla is a wake up call for the auto industry which has the experience in manufacturing huge volumes and generating the accompanying cash flows, but they also have to envision the ecosystem Musk aspires to create which is his ultimate challenge directed at disrupting the auto industry and also the classic sources of energy, oil and coal. This link to the wired.com article, ELON MUSK’S IRE REVEALS A WALL STREET-SILICON VALLEY DIVIDE, refers to similar episodes and doubts associated with Amazon’s struggle to become profitable.
“The Tesla conundrum again crystallizes this conflict. Analysts demand a sense of when, and how, the company will generate cash and stop accumulating debt; Musk finds such concerns secondary to building out an ecosystem of battery production, propulsion and motor systems, renewable-powered robotic factories, and new modes of production meant to revolutionize how heavy stuff is made as surely as Henry Ford and Frederick Winslow Taylor did in the early 20th century.” (wired.com)
Silicon Valley and Elon Musk are not only challenging Wall Street, but also the auto and oil industries who are massively inconvenienced from the current disruption and prefer focusing on what’s measurable!
Tesla Shares (Blue) vs. WTI Oil (Black) –
Is it stretching it to find an inverse relationship here?
There’s no room here for instant gratification! Invest-a-Vision–it may take longer, but can prove most rewarding!
Comments and Links:
“The negative propaganda on Tesla will go down in history as one of the greatest swindles of all time.
Actually luring uneducated investors to over leverage their short positions in stocks so the consortium of Tesla killers would not have to use much of their own money.
Conspiracy theory you say?
No, it’s been done or attempted on every major disruptive company in stock history. One of the most famous cases is Sirius Satellite Radio. See the documentary Stock Shock for details. Others include pretty much every publicly traded attempt like Tucker, or private attempts like Delorean.
This time, it is no coincidence that the largest disruption of all time has the largest short position.
This married with well placed articles in WSJ, Baron’s, and Fortune coupled with an onslaught in rags like Seeking Alpha has lured in thousands of uneducated short sellers taking on unhedged shorts positions until the shares where all gone.” Want to know more?
More related links:
This poem by Bing Gordon was presented at SXSW 2013, 3/12/13, a venture capitalist (KPMC) about the future home living room (http://www.kpcb.com/blog/tv-for-the-jetsons)
Further Description of the Jetsons TV Cartoon Series: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/50-years-of-the-jetsons-why-the-show-still-matters-43459669/