…and go for a “Jamaica” Coalition = CDU/CSU + FDP (Liberals) + the Greens?
Unimaginable #7**: Populists on the retreat (lose European elections)
– not in Germany!
Yesterday, Sunday, 24 September, Germany voted for a new Parliament. As was expected, Chancellor Merkel’s party won as did the potential for either a Grand Coalition, i.e. the status quo of CDU/CSU-SPD or the “Jamaica” Coalition of CDU/CSU+FDP+the Greens. The negative surprise was the popularity of the populist, right-wing party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). They got a stunning 3rd place and therefore represent an opposition force and unlike other European elections this year, it was one populist party to advance beyond expectations. Martin Schulz, head of the SPD, has decided instead for the role as opposition leader rather than coalition partner. Merkel will now have to leave her comfort zone and will have to consider courting the FDP (Liberals) and the Greens to create a Jamaica coalition with the colors Black-Yellow-Green. Germany will then get change, not necessarily a bad thing, but until the last few months, something unimaginable!
Going into the elections, IAV posted the following conclusion:
So we must learn to expect the unexpected. How will the protest vote play out in Germany? The danger could be that people don’t vote, because it appears to be a sure thing–some will say this is a form of protest. This is when the peripheral parties and esp. the populists, AfD can do very well or surprise, surprise, the FDP. The interesting battle may be that one, the AfD vs. the FDP. First Germany on September 24th, then let’s see what happens in Italy with their 5 Star Movement (also in retreat).
Voter turnout at ~76pct was good. Both the AfD and the FDP were the noticeable winners. Germany has moved towards the right. Italy’s 5 Star Movement is leftist as are the protest parties in Spain.
Keep in mind the Greens head a CDU-Green coalition in the southern German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg where Daimler, Porsche, Bosch amongst others are headquartered. The Greens may be more flexible and therefore, a new government coalition of CDU/CSU-FDP-the Greens could prove to be both business and market as well as European friendly.
German Elections 2017 Preliminary Results
|Union (CDU/CSU)||Angela Merkel||246||33%|
|AfD||Alexander Gauland, Alice Weidel||94||12,6%|
|DIE LINKE||Dietmar Bartsch, Sahra Wagenknecht||69||9,2%|
|GRÜNEN||Cem Özdemir, Katrin Göring-Eckardt||67||8,9%|