2020 Imagine the Unimaginables – Things might turn out much better than expected!

2020 Imagine the Unimaginables – Things might turn out much better than expected! In 2019, I expected markets to be driven by “Animal Spirits” — Animal Spirits is the combination of confidence and intuitive driven decision making (invented by John Maynard Keynes) Here is the link to the Unimaginables 2019 and a review below.  2019 […]

Imagine the Unimaginables: 2019 Will be Driven by Animal Spirits – Just Going for It!

Food for Thought over the Holidays! “Imagine the Unimaginables” is an annual attempt to identify what the capital markets are expecting in the months to come and therefore have efficiently discounted. It is an act of trying to identify consensus and then think of trends  that may defy that consensus and as a result create […]

Vvvroooom! Economic Cyclical Recovery Just Beginning Anew? Food for Thought

What is ‘Animal Spirits’? “Animal Spirits is a term used by the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, to explain financial and buying decisions in conditions of uncertainty. In Keynes’ 1936 publication, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, animal spirits describes the human emotion that drives consumer confidence. In modern economic terms, animal spirits describes the psychological […]

Imagine the Unimaginables Q1 2018 Update – “Markets are angry!”

Last December, IAV published a list of Capital Market Unimaginables for 2018 (link) with lots of charts and now lets see how things progressed in the first quarter… Now what can happen in 2018 that most cannot imagine, here is the original list: Unimaginable #1: More of the Same – Business as Usual — Markets continue to […]

Are Productivity Growth and the Stock Market About to Become Correlated?

Food for Thought… are we at inflection point on productivity growth? This article from the NY Times, “The Economy is getting hotter, is a Productivity Boom Next?” suggests that productivity depends just as much on demand as supply. The chart in the linked NY Times article from a McKinsey Global Institute (“Solving the Productivity Puzzle”) […]

Artificial Intelligence is only as good as the data input and those who program it…

Here are two articles discussing the scope of artificial intelligence (AI)and its dependence not only on data input, but the prowess of those who write the underlying code and their interpretation of what the machine or algorithm is suppose to achieve. Most people assume Silicon Valley and recently I have heard programmers in China are […]