2020 Imagine the Unimaginables – Things might turn out much better than expected!

2020 Imagine the Unimaginables – Things might turn out much better than expected! In 2019, I expected markets to be driven by “Animal Spirits” — Animal Spirits is the combination of confidence and intuitive driven decision making (invented by John Maynard Keynes) Here is the link to the Unimaginables 2019 and a review below.  2019 […]

Update: Imagine the Unimaginables 2019

“Vision is the art of seeing things invisible.” Jonathan Swift, an Anglo-Irish satirist, essayist, political pamphleteer, poet, and cleric) Q1 2019 Update to “Imagine the Unimaginables: 2019 Will be Driven by Animal Spirits” Black Swan? Copyright:(c) Zubada | Dreamstime.com Donald Trump may be losing his Black Swan effect as he becomes more predictable. The outcome […]

Imagine the Unimaginables: 2019 Will be Driven by Animal Spirits – Just Going for It!

Food for Thought over the Holidays! “Imagine the Unimaginables” is an annual attempt to identify what the capital markets are expecting in the months to come and therefore have efficiently discounted. It is an act of trying to identify consensus and then think of trends  that may defy that consensus and as a result create […]

Vvvroooom! Economic Cyclical Recovery Just Beginning Anew? Food for Thought

What is ‘Animal Spirits’? “Animal Spirits is a term used by the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, to explain financial and buying decisions in conditions of uncertainty. In Keynes’ 1936 publication, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, animal spirits describes the human emotion that drives consumer confidence. In modern economic terms, animal spirits describes the psychological […]

Imagine the Unimaginables Q1 2018 Update – “Markets are angry!”

Last December, IAV published a list of Capital Market Unimaginables for 2018 (link) with lots of charts and now lets see how things progressed in the first quarter… Now what can happen in 2018 that most cannot imagine, here is the original list: Unimaginable #1: More of the Same – Business as Usual — Markets continue to […]

Unimaginable #2: Will Inflation Really Remain Elusive?

Unimaginable #2: Inflation remains elusive such that rates stay low and bonds continue to rally AND economies compete to lower taxes! Published 6 December 2017 There is a good possibility that the unimaginable of inflation remains elusive stays unimaginable as more and more predict “stagflation” on the horizon, BUT economic dynamics may be pointing to […]

Unimaginable #5 Update: Oil Prices Approach $35? – I remain a lonely oil bear…

Powerful forces keep oil prices on an upward trajectory, but for how long? Weakening oil prices remains unimaginable. I remain a lonely bear… One factor supporting oil strength is the weak US dollar. The USD soared (inversed red line) until yearend after the Trump election and in 2017 simply fell even when oil weakened in […]

Unimaginable #3 Update: Europe Outpaces USA Growth -“New Global Contract” (Christine Lagarde, Head of IMF at Davos)

Unimaginable #3. European growth outpaces the USA turning negative interest rates positive, narrowing the differential keeping the EURO strong with little volatility. European company earnings are thoroughly underestimated due to the misconception that Europe is stuck in an old economy, but in reality companies (often unlisted) have embedded technology and services that keep them competitive and […]