Imagine the Unimaginables Q1 2018 Update – “Markets are angry!”

Last December, IAV published a list of Capital Market Unimaginables for 2018 (link) with lots of charts and now lets see how things progressed in the first quarter… Now what can happen in 2018 that most cannot imagine, here is the original list: Unimaginable #1: More of the Same – Business as Usual — Markets continue to […]

Berlin: Amazon HQ3? Berlin’s Greatest Fear – Gentrification and Losing Its Edge – Look to Seattle!?!

Seattle and Berlin have a lot in common esp. as pioneering cities on the edge! Seattle has been a money magnet, initially as pioneer gold diggers supplied themselves on their way to Alaska, then becoming the home for Boeing leading to the great transformation with not only the success of Microsoft, but now Amazon. Amazon […]

Unimaginable #2: Will Inflation Really Remain Elusive?

Unimaginable #2: Inflation remains elusive such that rates stay low and bonds continue to rally AND economies compete to lower taxes! Published 6 December 2017 There is a good possibility that the unimaginable of inflation remains elusive stays unimaginable as more and more predict “stagflation” on the horizon, BUT economic dynamics may be pointing to […]

Are Productivity Growth and the Stock Market About to Become Correlated?

Food for Thought… are we at inflection point on productivity growth? This article from the NY Times, “The Economy is getting hotter, is a Productivity Boom Next?” suggests that productivity depends just as much on demand as supply. The chart in the linked NY Times article from a McKinsey Global Institute (“Solving the Productivity Puzzle”) […]

Artificial Intelligence is only as good as the data input and those who program it…

Here are two articles discussing the scope of artificial intelligence (AI)and its dependence not only on data input, but the prowess of those who write the underlying code and their interpretation of what the machine or algorithm is suppose to achieve. Most people assume Silicon Valley and recently I have heard programmers in China are […]

Unimaginable #5 Update: Oil Prices Approach $35? – I remain a lonely oil bear…

Powerful forces keep oil prices on an upward trajectory, but for how long? Weakening oil prices remains unimaginable. I remain a lonely bear… One factor supporting oil strength is the weak US dollar. The USD soared (inversed red line) until yearend after the Trump election and in 2017 simply fell even when oil weakened in […]