Unimaginable #2: Will Inflation Really Remain Elusive?

Unimaginable #2: Inflation remains elusive such that rates stay low and bonds continue to rally AND economies compete to lower taxes! Published 6 December 2017 There is a good possibility that the unimaginable of inflation remains elusive stays unimaginable as more and more predict “stagflation” on the horizon, BUT economic dynamics may be pointing to […]

Are Productivity Growth and the Stock Market About to Become Correlated?

Food for Thought… are we at inflection point on productivity growth? This article from the NY Times, “The Economy is getting hotter, is a Productivity Boom Next?” suggests that productivity depends just as much on demand as supply. The chart in the linked NY Times article from a McKinsey Global Institute (“Solving the Productivity Puzzle”) […]

Artificial Intelligence is only as good as the data input and those who program it…

Here are two articles discussing the scope of artificial intelligence (AI)and its dependence not only on data input, but the prowess of those who write the underlying code and their interpretation of what the machine or algorithm is suppose to achieve. Most people assume Silicon Valley and recently I have heard programmers in China are […]

Unimaginable #5 Update: Oil Prices Approach $35? – I remain a lonely oil bear…

Powerful forces keep oil prices on an upward trajectory, but for how long? Weakening oil prices remains unimaginable. I remain a lonely bear… One factor supporting oil strength is the weak US dollar. The USD soared (inversed red line) until yearend after the Trump election and in 2017 simply fell even when oil weakened in […]

Unimaginable #3 Update: Europe Outpaces USA Growth -“New Global Contract” (Christine Lagarde, Head of IMF at Davos)

Unimaginable #3. European growth outpaces the USA turning negative interest rates positive, narrowing the differential keeping the EURO strong with little volatility. European company earnings are thoroughly underestimated due to the misconception that Europe is stuck in an old economy, but in reality companies (often unlisted) have embedded technology and services that keep them competitive and […]

Imagine the Unimaginables for 2018 – The Original Published 6 December 2017

“Imagine the Unimaginables” is an annual attempt to identify what the capital markets are expecting in the months to come and therefore have efficiently discounted. It is an act of trying to identify consensus and then think of trends  that may defy that consensus. This was originally published on December 6, 2017 and speculates what […]

Bubble Indicators part 3- Animal Spirits Make a Comeback/Chinese New Year

It seems to make sense when stock markets continuously make record highs, that it will have to end soon…oder? This headline says it all… Source: @markets; Read full article Bloomberg / WSJ THe Daily Shot (16Jan2018) Maybe we finally are experiencing a new release of “Animal Spirits”! When did you last hear that expression–must be […]