The last update for Unimaginable No. 1** published just over a week ago implied US and European good growth prospects in jobs and property statistics, but sentiment remains elusive, and now we get more encouraging indicators from the US vehicle sales and PMI manufacturing statistics! The elusive sentiment comes from a fear of rising interest rates as a result of the strong underlying economies and the possible unknown unknowns associated with the results…
On October 3, reported September 2017 American car sales unexpectedly surged an many attribute it to deep discounting and the replacement of lost or damaged vehicles in the hurricanes. Houston had an increase of over 100pct alone!
Source: WSJ-The Daily Shot
but maybe this has some influence, look what`s happened to household debt …
Source: WSJ The Daily Shot, @bySamRo, @blackrock; Read full article
Maybe Americans are getting into a real spending mood. Their debt is more manageable and their stock portfolios are doing well.
Look how vehicle sales could be indicating potential robust growth of 4pct — almost ‘V’ shaped!
US Total Vehicle Sales vs. US GDP Growth yoy
Also the US NAHB Index (National Assoc. of Home Builders) indicates a 4pct GDP Growth Potential in the USA
USA ISM Manufacturing in Sept. really indicates a ‘V’ shape!
Source: Capital Economics, WSJ The Daily Shot
Now let’s look at Europe
EU Car Registrations vs. GDP – Hard to tell which pulls the other-but the GDP in any case has a positive momentum!
…and just for fun, let’s look at China’s Comparisons
The most positive is the underlying upward trend for Vehicle Sales, but the Manufacturing Index is mostly just volatile
Also the Euro Zone PMI can pull the GDP Growth into a ‘V’ Shape!
Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index could easily pull the German GDP Higher! The DAX has discounted it..
… ifo vs. the DAX
Maybe we get that Unimaginable ‘V’ shaped recovery in both USA and Europe after all!