Unimaginable #1 Update in Charts: Car Sales & PMIs- V-shaped recovery finally in Europe AND USA

The last update for Unimaginable No. 1** published just over a week ago implied US and European good growth prospects in jobs and property statistics, but sentiment remains elusive, and now we get more encouraging indicators from the US vehicle sales and PMI manufacturing statistics! The elusive sentiment comes from a fear of rising interest rates as a result of the strong underlying economies and the possible unknown unknowns associated with the results…

Update on US and European (Elusive) Growth Prospects

On October 3, reported September 2017 American car sales unexpectedly surged an many attribute it to deep discounting and the replacement of lost or damaged vehicles in the hurricanes. Houston had an increase of over 100pct alone!

Source: WSJ-The Daily Shot

but maybe this has some influence, look what`s happened to household debt …

Source: WSJ The Daily Shot, @bySamRo, @blackrock; Read full article

Maybe Americans are getting into a real spending mood. Their debt is more manageable and their stock portfolios are doing well.

Look how vehicle sales could be indicating potential robust growth of 4pct — almost ‘V’ shaped!

US Total Vehicle Sales vs. US GDP Growth yoy

Source: TradingEconomics.com

Also the US NAHB Index (National Assoc. of Home Builders) indicates a 4pct GDP Growth Potential in the USA

Source: TradingEconomics.com

USA ISM Manufacturing in Sept. really indicates a ‘V’ shape!

Source: Capital Economics, WSJ The Daily Shot

Now let’s look at Europe

EU Car Registrations vs. GDP – Hard to tell which pulls the other-but the GDP in any case has a positive momentum!

Source: TradingEconomics.com

…and just for fun, let’s look at China’s Comparisons

The most positive is the underlying upward trend for Vehicle Sales, but the Manufacturing Index is mostly just volatile

Source: TradingEconomics.com

Also the Euro Zone PMI can pull the GDP Growth into a ‘V’ Shape!

Source: TradingEconomics.com

Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index could easily pull the German GDP Higher! The DAX has discounted it..

… ifo vs. the DAX

Source: TradingEconomics.com

Maybe we get that Unimaginable ‘V’ shaped recovery in both USA and Europe after all!

**Imagine the Unimaginables 2017, published in December 2016

 

 

 

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