The USA is Smashing Clean Energy Targets as of 2016

Under the list of Unimaginables published last November for 2017:  Imagine the Unimaginables 2017 , No. 5 Trump Goes Green remains quite unimaginable, but America taking the lead in meeting or beating global targets could get less unimaginable. Here is a review of the 2017 timeline published so far under Unimaginable #5:

5. Trump goes green

(hey, why not? Can create more jobs)…Perhaps even more Unimaginable with Pruitt in charge of the EPA!

NY Times (24May): Fighting Trump on Climate, California Becomes a Global Force

WSJ The Daily Shot (24May2017): Solar industry employment. Should the sector become more efficient to compete effectively with fossil fuels? See article link below

Source: @voxdotcom, @josephncohen; Read full article

The USA pulls out of the Paris Accord on Climate Change or curbing carbon count. It seems individual American States will maintain the positive momentum in alternative energy as even Texas becomes one of the biggest producers of Wind Energy! Many suspect America will anyway reach the required goals without participating in the accord and of course Trump can use that moment to say, “I told you so!” hmmm… pls see this Link (TIME): Climate Agreement: How Trump May Become a Climate Hero |

WSJ The Daily Shot 16June2017: This chart shows that in a few years, solar power generation in China will be cheaper than coal. The US is already there.

Source: Bloomberg.com; Read full article

June 22, 2017: Trump says the solar wall on the Mexican Border would pay for itself…

July 11, 2017: The Carbon Majors Database / CDP Carbon Majors Report 2017
100 fossil fuel producers and nearly 1 trillion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – It’s mostly coal and oil producers

October 16, 2017: This is a forecast for the electricity production mix in 2026

Source: BMI Research / WSJ-The Daily Shot (16OCT2017)

Looking at the chart below comparing 2006 estimates for 2016 and what actually transpired is proving that America can easily beat expectations. Applying the kind of beat experienced between 2006 estimates and 2016 reality can make one wonder if the chart above is underestimating the probable acceleration in capacities in natural gas, solar and wind or other non-hydro renewables.  Of course, critics will say the estimates in 2006 (and now the 2026 estimates above) were made under the Republican Bush administration and therefore, too conservatively low whereas the environmental transformation took place under the Democrat Obama administration. Still, if clean energy sourcing continues to create jobs, grow and beat expectations, how can the current government defy the trend?

US clean energy performance vs. the targets from last decade. Will the progress slow down going forward? At this rate, Natural Gas may even takeover coal as the largest energy source for electricity production!

Source: @wef, @josephncohen; Read full article /WSJ-The Daily Shot 16Oct2017

Producing enough electricity and storing it will be the main infrastructure challenges globally as the world not only embraces electric and hybrid motor vehicles, but also the usage and demands of Internet and mobility, not only in transport, but also communications takes precedence. The chart below still suggests that the classic internal combustion engine (ICEs) will remain dominant, although growth momentum will be in EVs and EV hybrids. Too conservative? Experts say we should prepare for exponential growth and replacement once batteries get more economical, i.e. cheaper and longer lasting!

A near-term forecast for electric vehicles.

Source: BMI Research / WSJ-The Daily Shot (16OCT2017)

Greater production of Natural Gas, Solar, Wind and other renewable energy sources will make them cheaper, more competitive and together with greater storage capacities–who will need coal in 10 years time?

 

For more insight, take a look at previous IAV links:

European Auto Industry — Too Dependent on Diesel? The Tesla Challenge

The Evolving Car Market – Chart of Timeline for Electric Vehicles by Manufacturer

 

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