German Elections! Germany Gets “Change” – Will Merkel Leave Her Comfort Zone…

…and go for a “Jamaica” Coalition = CDU/CSU + FDP (Liberals) + the Greens?

Unimaginable #7**: Populists on the retreat (lose European elections)

– not in Germany!

Yesterday, Sunday, 24 September, Germany voted for a new Parliament. As was expected, Chancellor Merkel’s party won as did the potential for either a Grand Coalition, i.e. the status quo of CDU/CSU-SPD or the “Jamaica” Coalition of CDU/CSU+FDP+the Greens. The negative surprise was the popularity of the populist, right-wing party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). They got a stunning 3rd place and therefore represent an opposition force and unlike other European elections this year, it was one populist party to advance beyond expectations. Martin Schulz, head of the SPD, has decided instead for the role as opposition leader rather than coalition partner. Merkel will now have to leave her comfort zone and will have to consider courting the FDP (Liberals) and the Greens to create a Jamaica coalition with the colors Black-Yellow-Green. Germany will then get change, not necessarily a bad thing, but until the last few months, something unimaginable!

Going into the elections, IAV posted the following conclusion:

So we must learn to expect the unexpected. How will the protest vote play out in Germany? The danger could be that people don’t vote, because it appears to be a sure thing–some will say this is a form of protest. This is when the peripheral parties and esp. the populists, AfD can do very well or surprise, surprise, the FDP. The interesting battle may be that one, the AfD vs. the FDP. First Germany on September 24th, then let’s see what happens in Italy with their 5 Star Movement (also in retreat).

Voter turnout at ~76pct was good. Both the AfD and the FDP were the noticeable winners. Germany has moved towards the right. Italy’s 5 Star Movement is leftist as are the protest parties in Spain.

Keep in mind the Greens head a CDU-Green coalition in the southern German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg where Daimler, Porsche, Bosch amongst others are headquartered. The Greens may be more flexible and therefore, a new government coalition of CDU/CSU-FDP-the Greens could prove to be both business and market as well as European friendly.

German Elections 2017 Preliminary Results

Letzte Aktualisierung 8:15hr MESZ
Partei Spitzenkandidat(in) Sitze Stimmen %
Union (CDU/CSU) Angela Merkel 246 33%
SPD Martin Schulz 153 20,5%
AfD Alexander Gauland, Alice Weidel 94 12,6%
FDP Christian Lindner 80 10,7%
DIE LINKE Dietmar Bartsch, Sahra Wagenknecht 69 9,2%
GRÜNEN Cem Özdemir, Katrin Göring-Eckardt 67 8,9%
Quelle: MSN
**“Imagine the Unimaginables” for 2017 is an annual attempt to identify what the capital markets are expecting in the months to come and therefore have efficiently discounted. It is an act of trying to identify consensus. This was originally published on December 1, 2016 and speculates what might happen in 2017 and is not yet discounted.  Update: Imagine the Unimaginables 2017 (Link)

4 Comment

  1. […] German Elections! Germany Gets “Change” – Will Merkel Leave Her Comfort Zone&#8230… […]

  2. […] German Elections! Germany Gets “Change” – Will Merkel Leave Her Comfort Zone&#8230… […]

  3. Tom in the Desert says: Reply

    Are the Germans afraid of freer markets, or are they just afraid of themselves? The Merkel “comfort zone” mentioned here sounds like something left from the previous century, not an outlook of a large and technologically advanced economy of our time: a bunch of Europeans more concerned about good kitchen appliances, cars, retirement pensions, and “green” breakfast cereal now provided by their famous but very old-fashioned social model that lags in the important technologies of our time. Anyone who really wants to can make a good dish washer or luxury car: my Lexus will surely outlast me.

    So I have some suggestions: Step aside now Angela. Be satisfied that you became the most important woman in Europe for a few years. In your valedictory speech remind the Germans that others people can also make good kitchen appliances and cars and think of a way to gracefully apologize for upsetting your people so thoroughly with refugees from countries that will always be fighting anyway, tell them to read about Germany’s digitally competitive rankings by the IMD in Lausanne before they vote again, and encourage them to look toward a future of innovation in technology and much else instead of fearing it as they seem to enjoy voting for.

    1. There are a lot of people out there thinking like you that Merkel has done her duty and it is time for someone new and younger… She is a fighter and is not really ready to step down just yet, so that is going to require coming out of her comfort zone and take risks and experiment. Not really typical German. She is one of few willing to rule, lead, which speaks for her. A Jamaica coalition would have been a major step in coming out of her comfort zone, a minority coalition with the Greens would also be new, but it looks like a Grand Coalition with the SPD or the Status Quo will prevail – boring. OR a new election, but most don’t believe that will change anything. Let’s see. Thanks for your input!

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